In the wake of Russia’s shelling of a nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the threat of nuclear war became a lot more real, and if investors weren’t thinking about it before, they are now. While it’s not likely that anyone would be worrying about their portfolios in the event of a civilization-ending catastrophe, it’s more likely that the worst won’t happen, and that stocks will recover. In that scenario, it might be worth buying the dip, reports an article in Bloomberg.
The article quotes chief global strategist Peter Berezin of BCA Research Inc., who gives a disconcerting 10% chance of global nuclear war in the next year. Given the 90% chance that that doesn’t happen, it’s still likely that markets will have a freakout over the next month or so—similar to March 2020, at the start of the pandemic. That presents an advantageous buying opportunity for investors. Berezin advises to buy stocks and ignore existential risk when it comes to your portfolio, even if you’re worried about it from a personal perspective.
Berezin notes is that growing geopolitical tensions could very well lead to a boom in defense spending. At the same time, household spending might also increase. Though higher interest rates will eventually hit risk assets, as a result of lower savings and higher inflation, that’s still a ways away, the article contends.