In its 2021 outlook, index fund “powerhouse” Vanguard Group predicted that “the end of the value coma is coming,” according to a recent article in MarketWatch.
The group wrote, “Our research indicates that a value premium does exist, and that the recent outperformance of growth stocks can be partially explained by downward-trending long-term inflation levels and the lack of material acceleration in earnings growth over the last decade.” The article explains that low inflation bolsters growth stocks because of the longer-term aspect of their expected dividends, while value stocks pay out more earnings as dividends in the short term.
Vanguard expects modest inflation, the article reports, with bond yields in the range of 2%. The firm’s research reveals that value stocks can outperform even with low inflation, when earning growth across the economy is accelerating. However, Vanguard notes that such outperformance “will be primarily driven by the contraction in the valuations of growth stocks, rather than the valuations of value stocks returning to levels seen in prior decades.”
Over the next decade, Vanguard reportedly expects average annual value stock growth of 1.1% compared with a growth stock decline of 2.6%.