At the start of 2019, BAM Alliance director of research Larry Swedroe outlined a list of predictions–made by various market experts and investors–to identify a consensus of “sure things” that he recently scored with “+1” for true, “-1” for false.
Below is a chart outlining his findings:
| Prediction | Score |
| U.S. economic growth would continue strong | -1 |
| Corporate profit growth would continue strong | -1 |
| U.S. stock market would have a strong year | +1 |
| It would be safe to extend maturities | +1 |
| The dollar would weaken versus the euro | -1 |
| Strong performance for gold | +1 |
| Global market volatility would remain high | -1 |
Swedroe sums up the findings of four “winners” and four “losers” to a net score of zero, offering the following chart which he describes as “historical evidence on my list of sure things:”
“Apparently,” he concludes, “sure things are not so sure.”
