Where to Find the Next Leg of Gains if Value Starts Slowing Down

Where to Find the Next Leg of Gains if Value Starts Slowing Down

The recent comeback of value stocks has been bolstered by rising interest rates and inflation concerns, but growth could re-emerge as a dominant force “as the easy money in small-cap and value are taken off the table” later this year. This according to a recent article in Barron’s.

“Economic growth will start to decelerate after the initial burst,” according to Invesco’s head of factor and equity product strategy Nick Kalivas, who adds that is typically the time for high-quality stocks–those with strong balance sheets and organic earnings growth—to perform well. For the next few months, however, he says value’s strength should continue: “We haven’t fully reopened [the economy] yet, we still have the favorable tailwind of fiscal and monetary policy. Although value has done very well, it’s still not near the peaks we saw at other points in the cycle.”

The article also cites comments from Cetera Investment Management CIO Gene Goldman, who says pent-up consumer demand will drive strong earnings growth in 2021 and suggests that investors avoid sectors that could be hurt by rising interest rates—i.e., consumer staples, utilities, and real estate—while remaining bullish on financials. According to Goldman, more headwinds may be on the way for 2022, including rising debt, potential tax increases and higher bond yields: “The stock market loves positive surprises, but those surprises will start to decline pretty quickly.”