Conventional wisdom suggests that value reigns at the beginning of bull markets and growth overtakes as the bull market progresses. But there is data that suggests another relationship: That is, that financials and tech play a dominant role in the respective strength of growth and value, this according to research by Standard & Poor’s Managing Director of US Equity Strategy, Sam Stovall.
The correlation of monthly percentage changes in both the growth/value and tech/financials relative strengths generates a coefficient of .73 (1.0 would mean that they track perfectly). Further, correlation between monthly price changes in the ten S&P 500 sectors suggests that Financials and Tech play a significant role in the movement of the growth/value relative strength.
Over the last 26 calendar years, the S&P Growth Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Value Index 62% of the time. In the last 9 years, it has done so 89% of the time. While there may be a reversion to the mean (that is, a swap between the two) it seems that, for the time being, growth will remain behind the wheel.