Biggs vs. Mauldin: Will The Rally Hold?

The big question in the market these days is, of course, whether the current rally is really the start of a new bull run, or if it is another bear market head fake. And two interesting, differing takes on the topic come from top strategists Barton Biggs and John Mauldin. In a recent CNBC interview, hedge fund star Biggs says the rally could well be for real. As of mid-April, he saw 40 signs that… Read More

Risk and Asset Allocation

In a piece written for Forbes’ Intelligent Investing section, David Serchuk today offers some interesting data on risk and portfolio management. One point made by several of those Serchuk interviewed is that asset allocation is a crucial, and often overlooked, key to managing risk. “The macro-picture here is that asset allocation remains an easy way to get to the core of your portfolio’s risk exposure, even though it gets relatively little attention in the financial… Read More

S&P’s Stovall: Retest in the Works

Sam Stovall, Standard & Poor’s chief investment strategist, offered some interesting data on whether this rally is for real in an interview with CNBC today. Stovall — who said back in March that the S&P 500 could rally 22 percent over the short term based on historical trends — says the market is due for a retest. “If history repeats itself, we would probably go through a retest,” he said. “We’re just at the beginning… Read More

After Successful Short Plays in ’08, Leuthold Now Bullish on U.S. Stocks

Another top strategist who made a bundle by shorting stocks in 2008 is now predicting big gains for U.S. equities in the near future. Steve Leuthold, manager of the Grizzly Short Fund, told Bloomberg recently that he thinks the S&P 500 will reach 1,100 by year-end. “This market was about as cheap as I’ve seen in my 45 years in this business,” said Leuthold, whose fund gained 74% last year as the markets tanked. “We’re… Read More

Forester Sounding Bullish

Tom Forester — whose Forester Value Fund was the lone stock fund to make money in 2008 — tells MarketWatch that he’s now only holding a small portion of his portfolio in cash, has dropped his hedge positions, and sees more upside than downside in the market for the next three to five years. “It has certainly helped the fund’s performance that this self-proclaimed ‘low P/E buyer’ has no qualms about moving heavily into cash,… Read More

A History of Resilience

The economic news has offered some rays of hope in the past few weeks — surprisingly good bank earnings, unemployment declines, improved capital-raising conditions for corporations — and the markets have responded. Whether the next few weeks will provide the same hopeful signals, however, remains to be seen. But whatever the short term brings, the U.S. will recover from the current crisis and move on to new heights — that’s one of the key issues… Read More

Rogers: Diversification “A Scam”

Commodities guru Jim Rogers offers his take on the current state of the economy and stock market in an interview with BusinessWeek, saying that diversification is “a scam”, that the U.S. might be better off letting a couple big institutions fail now, and that commodities are the place to be — whether the world economy revives or not “Diversification,” Rogers says, “is something that stock brokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t… Read More

Market Opportunities, but Long U.S. Economic Recovery, Strategists Say

Three top market strategists — Francois Trahan of ISI Group, Dennis Stattman of the Blackrock Global Allocation Fund, and John Dorfman of Thunderstorm Capital — had some encouraging views on the stock markets on Consuelo Mack’s WealthTrack recently, though they think the U.S. economy could be in for a long haul in righting itself. Trahan noted that the current bullish turn is the fifth 10%-plus rally we’ve seen in the past year, but the first… Read More

“Fair Value”: The GMO Perspective

The big question on many investors’ minds lately has been whether the recent market plunge has caused stocks to be undervalued — and, if so, how much more undervalued they might become. One obvious question involved in that debate: What goes into figuring the fair value of the market? In a white paper recently posted on the website of GMO — Jeremy Grantham’s firm — Ben Inker takes a shot at answering that question, and… Read More

Fisher: “Look Up and Out”

In his latest Forbes column, Kenneth Fisher says that bargains abound in the market — and that, with a “wall of money” coming from the global stimulus efforts, now is a time to be bullish. And, in an interview with Bloomberg, he says the bull run could be a big one. “Why aren’t people buying stocks when stocks are cheap?” Fisher asked in his Forbes article. “Investors refuse to think a few years out to… Read More