Leuthold’s Paulsen Sees Recession Red Flag

“For the first time since before the 2007-2009 recession, premiums on the lowest-rated tranche of investment grade U.S. corporate bonds have risen to 2 percent after being below that level,” based on data gathered by the Minneapolis-based research firm the Leuthold Group. This according to a recent article in Bloomberg. In a note to clients last month, Leuthold chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen wrote, “We are not sure why a 2 percent credit spread has… Read More

New Study Links Pregnancy Rates to Recession

A new report published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reports that “a falling conception rate in the U.S. has consistently preceded the economic downturns of the last three decades,” according to a recent CNBC article. The NBER used high-frequency data from birth certificates to examine fertility trends across the 109 million births in the U.S. between 1989 and 2016, “tracking their changes in relation to business cycles,” the article reports. The study… Read More

Bull Market Could End by 2019, Says Guggenheim’s Minerd

In a recent interview with Barron’s, Guggenheim managing partner Scott Minerd said he sees upside for U.S. stocks before a recession hits in late 2019 or 2020 that will “derail this mighty market and prove painful for bonds.” He is bullish on international stocks and active management, particularly in fixed income. Here are some highlights from the interview: Valuation is “poor timing tool” says Minerd. “Looking at corporate credit and high yield, valuations are rich.… Read More

Byron Wien on Potential Upsets to Economy

In a recent article for Barron’s, Blackstone Advisory Partners vice chairman Byron Wien shares his insights regarding factors that could potentially upset the economy. Giving an overview of the global economic and political climate, Wien highlights the general rise in populism and shares his view on the Trump presidency, Brexit vote, EU, and the economic factors affecting several European countries including France, Germany, Spain and Italy. Regarding the financial markets, Wien writes that “abundance of… Read More