GMO: International Equities Promising, Govt. Bonds Dangerous

Jeremy Grantham’s GMO has released its first-quarter 2009 update, and the firm says it will continue to put money back into equities, though with a cautious approach. “Having increased our exposure to equities last quarter, we kept to our game plan and gingerly shifted our stance toward favoring riskier asset classes,” GMO states. “Our concern about the broader economic picture, however, prevented us from deploying toward more speculative areas of the market, and we did… Read More

“Fair Value”: The GMO Perspective

The big question on many investors’ minds lately has been whether the recent market plunge has caused stocks to be undervalued — and, if so, how much more undervalued they might become. One obvious question involved in that debate: What goes into figuring the fair value of the market? In a white paper recently posted on the website of GMO — Jeremy Grantham’s firm — Ben Inker takes a shot at answering that question, and… Read More

Grantham: There’s Risk in Value — and in Buy-and-Hold

Jeremy Grantham has released the second half of his fourth-quarter 2008 letter on GMO’s website, and in it he offers several intriguing points about why value investors got hit hard in 2008, where the economy is headed, and whether a buy-and-hold approach to stock investing makes sense. Calling 2008 “The Year of The Value Trap”, Grantham notes that the decades-long pattern of big market declines leading to great stock bargains and big recoveries did not… Read More

WSJ, Grantham on The Trouble with Earnings

Is the market cheap, as investors like Bruce Berkowitz and David Dreman have said recently? Or is it still overpriced, as others, like Jim Rogers and Bill Gross, have maintained? The answer may depend on which set of corporate earnings you look at. That’s the issue The Wall Street Journal’s Mark Gongloff examines today. Gongloff discusses the difference between operating earnings (which exclude supposed one-time expenses like writedowns to give a better idea of the… Read More

Five Top Managers Are Buying — Cautiously

Noticing a trend that we’ve picked up on in recent weeks, Fortune notes that several extreme value investors have begun to see good, safe buys in the current market. In an interview with the magazine, top fund managers Robert Rodriguez, Susan Byrne, Jeremy Grantham, Tom Forester, and Leslie Christian all tell Fortune that they’re seeing a attractive stocks in the market right now — though they all remain somewhat cautious in this unprecedented environment. Rodriguez,… Read More

Grantham: Economy Could Struggle for a While; Stocks Won’t

A couple more tidbits from Jeremy Grantham: the long-time bear who recently turned bullish tells USA Today that the economy could be in store for a lengthy period of trouble. “Grantham thinks that ‘we could have something reminiscent, in some respects, to the Japanese situation’ that began in the early 1990s and continued well into this decade — a long, low-grade deflationary recession’,” the newspaper reports. “U.S. investors in stocks and bonds may have to… Read More

Grantham Says ’09 Analyst Earnings Estimates Much Too High

Jeremy Grantham, manager of the $100 billion investment firm GMO, believes analysts’ 2009 earnings estimates are “vastly overstated”, writes Forbes James M. Clash. “Grantham says S&P 500 earnings could easily drop 30% to $65,” Clash says, adding that Grantham “thinks the index is close to fairly priced at its Nov. 13 close of 911. But he notes that bear markets overshoot as often as bull ones do. So he guesses that the index will bottom… Read More

Stocks “Reasonably Cheap” for First Time Since 1980s, Says Grantham

Jeremy Grantham, one of the few who saw the current credit crisis coming, provides some thoughtful comments on the crisis, asset bubbles, the stock market’s current valuation and how individual investors might consider looking at the equity markets right now. Speaking with Consuelo Mack on WealthTrack, Grantham (co-founder and chairman of GMO LLC), who has been bearish on the stock market for some time, says that for the first time in over two decades stocks… Read More