Hulbert’s Observations from Tracking Investment Newsletters

A recent article in the AAII Journal outlined an interview with Mark Hulbert (of Hulbert Financial Digest) in which the MarketWatch senior columnist shared lessons learned during his years of tracking investment newsletters. Here are some highlights: One of the biggest lessons learned, Hulbert said, was that the “prospect of making money is so alluring that investors are willing to suspend all their rational faculties.” With regard to tracking the performance of model portfolios, Hulbert… Read More

Hulbert: Bitcoin Will Never Replace Gold

In an article for Barron’s, Mark Hulbert outlines the findings published in a paper by University of Chicago economics professor Eric Budish titled, “The Economic Limits of Bitcoin and the Blockchain.” According to Hulbert, Budish’s paper argues that bitcoin is “destined to play no more than a ‘bit’ role in the global monetary system because, if it were to grow ever more significant, it would become increasingly vulnerable to an attack that could destroy much… Read More

Mark Hulbert Offers Stock Trading Secret

In a recent article for MarketWatch, financial analyst and journalist Mark Hulbert describes what he calls the “market-timing industry’s dirty little secret: bear markets and increased volatility are good for business.” The explanation, according to Hulbert, is that it’s difficult to add value when the market is going straight up. “Who needs a market timer during conditions like those?” he queries. But when volatility kicks in and investors get nervous, subscriptions to advisory services tend… Read More

Will a Stock Exodus Follow Rate Hikes?

In a recent Barron’s article, financial analyst Mark Hulbert wrote that many of the investment advisors he monitors on a regular basis are concerned that high interest rates will entice investors to move their dollars from equities to bonds. He cites the so-called “Great Rotation” theory that emerged in 2011 and predicted a huge shift from bond funds into equity fund as “investors came to appreciate the near certainty that interest rates would eventually rise… Read More

The Stock Market Wants the Midterms to Be Over

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, Mark Hulbert (founder of Hulbert Financial Digest) writes, “The stock market is likely to struggle between now and the Nov. 6 midterm elections,” but not due to partisan politics. This is because, he claims, “investors hate uncertainty, and these elections create a healthy dose of just that.” But Hulbert says the silver lining for investors is that the market “should perform especially well in the six months following… Read More

Hulbert: This Timing Model Says Bull Market Has Peaked

According to one dependable valuation model, writes Mark Hulbert in a recent article for MarketWatch, stocks are now more overvalued than they have been since 1969. The model Hulbert cites is based on Value Line’s Median Appreciation Potential (VLMAP), a number published weekly by Value Line, Inc. that represents the median of the projected valuations (in three to five years’ time) of 1,700 stocks monitored by the firm’s analysts. Hulbert says that a number of… Read More

Mark Hulbert on the Reality of Buybacks

The new tax legislation will encourage companies to repatriate much of the cash they now hold outside the U.S., much of which could find its way to stock repurchases, writes Mark Hulbert in a recent Barron’s article. But the expected surge in buybacks, he argues, “isn’t going to extend the bull market’s life longer than it would have lasted otherwise.” Hulbert cites the first research regarding share repurchases (published in the 1990s) which found that… Read More

Hulbert: Large Caps Now and Small Caps in January

Small-cap stocks outperform large caps, on average, over the long term, but almost all the small-cap advantage occurs in the early part of the year. This according to a recent MarketWatch article by Mark Hulbert. “As you can see from the chart below,” he writes, “their advantage gradually diminishes as the year progresses, and is actually negative by the last quarter of the year.” The widely-accepted theory on the relative performance of these two asset… Read More

Hulbert: Value vs. Growth Valuation Spread Widest Since 2000

Earlier this month, price spread between value and growth stocks was the largest it has been since 2000, writes Mark Hulbert in a recent MarketWatch article. Hulbert offers data from Columbia University finance professor Kent Daniel showing that the average large-cap value stock’s price-book ratio is “barely half that of the average among large-cap growth stocks. Among small-cap stocks, value is even cheaper relative to growth.” The only time value has been relatively cheaper, according… Read More

Hulbert: Small Cap Sector Shockingly Overvalued

In a recent MarketWatch article, Mark Hulbert reveals a revised calculation that the small-cap sector is currently valued at a whopping 78.7 times earnings. He writes, “the Russell 2000’s true P/E today is higher than it was at either the top of the internet bubble or the 2007 bull market peak.” Hulbert describes the calculation, which he credits to financial services firm INTL FCStone’s Vincent Deluard, who told him that nearly a third of the… Read More