The Value Line Investment Survey, a respected market timing model that “has an excellent track record predicting the market’s return” is predicting that the median U.S. stock will “produce an annualized price-only gain of 6.0% over the next four years.” This according to a recent article in MarketWatch by contributor Mark Hulbert.
The survey prediction, published each week under the name Value Line Median Appreciation Potential (VLMAP), represents the median level of projections made by Value Line analysts for the 1,700 stocks they monitor.
Hulbert notes that the model’s projections are “by no means perfect” nor does it explain “the path the stock market takes to get to where it’s projected to be in four years’ time. Even if the model is right, in other words, the stock market could decline in coming weeks and break below its March 23 lows, before subsequently recovering to be nicely higher in April 2024.”
Regarding why the VMAP is considered a strong market timing indicator, Hulbert suggests that it “traces to Value Line analysts’ longer-term focus, which keeps the model from getting caught up in investor sentiment around short-term price swings.”