October Low Could Signal Rally

Over the last 120 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained an average of 6.8% from its lowest October close through December 31st, writes Mark Hulbert in last week’s MarketWatch. Given recent dips, we could see a “significant rally through the end of the year,” according to Hulbert. He contrasted post-low monthly gains going back to 1896 and found that those following October lows are the largest. This pattern, Hulbert writes, has led many… Read More

How to Win in the Market: Look Up

It may sound like a mother’s mantra to her tech-obsessed teenager, but turning off your computer and putting away your smartphone might be the ticket to triumph in the market. This according to Mark Hulbert, founder of The Hulbert Financial Digest, in a recent MarketWatch column. Hulbert cites study results published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research that found performance by those traders who pay the closest attention to the stock market’s… Read More

Market Timing Indicator Kicks off Rare Buy Signal

Most would agree that valuations in the current mature bull market make buying equities a bit less alluring than they were, say, when the U.S. was emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis. However, according to a MarketWatch article by Mark Hulbert, an indicator referred to as the Coppock Guide is suggesting that the potential still exists for “significant returns.” Edwin Coppock was a technical analyst who proposed his market-timing model in an article for Barron’s in… Read More

Hulbert Highlights Indicators of an Overvalued Market

There are six strong reasons why today’s bull market is on “weak legs” according to Mark Hulbert in a MarketWatch article from earlier this month. He offers the following chart to illustrate that the current stock market is “more overvalued than it was at 79% to 95% of bull market peaks dating back to 1900”: Hulbert comments on current indicators including the following: Price-book ratio of 2.8 is higher than it was during 23 out… Read More

Hulbert: It’s Time to Sell

Constantly reacting to news headlines, writes Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch, will not only prevent an investor from beating the market, it can also precipitate “attacks of doom and gloom.” He reminds readers how the crash of China’s stock market in 2015 led to “panic selling in the U.S. equity market. In one five-minute window late in August 2015, the Dow Industrials were down by more than 1,100 points.” Hulbert points out that the panic at… Read More

An Oldie but Goodie: Dow Jones Utility Average Hits All-Time High

The Dow Jones Utility Average (DJU) was created back in 1929 to house utility stocks previously represented in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a recent article published by MarketWatch, columnist Mark Hulbert asserts that the new high is good news for the stock market as a whole, but the party won’t last forever. According to Kelley Wright, editor of Investment Quality Trends (one of the myriad newsletters Hulbert tracks), “The DJU has tended… Read More

Is There a Red Flag in Front of this Bull?

This May marks the one-year anniversary of the record high in U.S. stocks, but don’t break out the champagne just yet. This milestone is sparking some concern as to whether the other shoe is about to drop, and the jitters are based on more than just a hunch. There’s been only one bull market since 1900 that has experienced a correction lasting longer than a year and, next week, we’ll be passing that. The question is: are things different now than in very other… Read More

Investing in Small Caps – Beware of Style Drift & Avoid Junk

If you are investing in small cap stocks, it is important not to make these two big mistakes writes Mark Hulbert for Barrron’s, because after few years of lackluster relative returns small caps look poised to turn the corner. As Hulbert points, smaller cap stocks have outperformed large caps over the long term but “for the past five years the Russell 1000 (which contains the 1,000 largest U.S. stocks) has beaten the Russell 2000 (the… Read More

Negative Implications of Falling Corporate Profit Margins

In his MarketWatch column, Mark Hulbert explains the distressing news buried by much of the recent positive reporting on the upward revision of GDP earlier this month. “Though the government’s upward revision of GDP growth looked positive on the surface,” he says, “a deeper look at the data shows the stock market currently is on shaky ground.” The report revealed that corporate profit margins (profits as a percentage of GDP) “experienced one of their largest… Read More

Best Performing Dividend Model Over 25 Years Shows Market Possibly Moderately Undervalued

In the continued debate around the valuation of equities, one dividend model, as developed by  Investment Quality Trends, indicates that stocks are still moderately undervalued, writes Mark Hulbert for Barrons. Investment Quality Trends dividend strategy looks for companies that are likely to be able to sustain their dividend, as a result of their strong financial charateristics, and secondly, the model compares a stock’s yield to its historical yield (not the overall market). “When a stock’s… Read More