Respected Model Flashes Bullish Stock Outlook

The Value Line Investment Survey, a respected market timing model that “has an excellent track record predicting the market’s return” is predicting that the median U.S. stock will “produce an annualized price-only gain of 6.0% over the next four years.” This according to a recent article in MarketWatch by contributor Mark Hulbert. The survey prediction, published each week under the name Value Line Median Appreciation Potential (VLMAP), represents the median level of projections made by… Read More

Quickest Stocks to Recover from Coronavirus Crash May Be the Smallest

In a recent MarketWatch article, columnist Mark Hulbert suggests that the highest quality small-cap stocks may weather the coronavirus storm better than others. Using data from Ned Davis Research, Hulbert measured performance over the first six weeks of bear markets (focusing on those since the late 1970s). “While the amount by which the tiniest stocks recently lagged the biggest ones is larger than average, it is not at a record,” he writes, providing the following… Read More

When to Expect Stocks to Revisit Their Coronavirus Crash Low

In a recent MarketWatch article, columnist Mark Hulbert argues that those who say the coronavirus bear market is behind us may be more hopeful than correct. “While the market’s rally since its March 23 low has been explosive,” Hulbert writes, “it’s not unprecedented.” He notes that since the Dow’s creation in the late 1800s, there have been 38 “other occasions where it rallied just as much (or more) in just as short a period—and all… Read More

“Halloween Indicator” More Trick than Treat

In a recent MarketWatch article, columnist Mark Hulbert suggests that those buying into the so-called “Halloween Indicator”—that is, a six-month upside for stocks—may be disappointed. “That pattern is based on the historical tendency for the stock market to produce the bulk of its gains between Halloween and the following May Day,” notes Hulbert, adding that the tendency “traces almost exclusively to the third years of the U.S. presidential four-year cycle. In the other three years… Read More

Hulbert: A New Approach to Momentum Investing

New research has shown that a more effective way to profit from the momentum effect is to buy the “hottest” factors rather than the best-performing stocks. This according to a Wall Street Journal article by Mark Hulbert, founder of Hulbert Financial Digest. Researchers found that stocks held in a high-momentum portfolio tend to share the same “factors” and that the “real momentum effect actually takes place at the level of these factors rather than individual… Read More

The Next Bear Market Could See a 35% Dip in Dow

In a recent article for MarketWatch, columnist Mark Hulbert explains that the severity of the next bear market has become a pressing question of late, “since Wall Street has shifted from whether a U.S. recession will occur in the next 12-18 months to when.” To determine whether the severity of the next bear market could be predicted, Hulbert analyzed all 36 bear markets since 1900 (data from Ned Davis Research). His findings are charted below:… Read More

Hulbert: Surprising Connection Between Bull Market and Share Buybacks

A research study published last year in the Financial Analysts Journal found that net buybacks account for the bulk of the intermediate- and longer-term differences in stock market returns around the world. This according to a recent Wall Street Journalarticle by columnist Mark Hulbert. “This comes as a surprise,” Hulbert writes, “because the conventional wisdom is that economic growth is by far the most important factor in the outperformance of certain countries’ stock markets in… Read More

Hulbert: The Bull Market is Only Three Months Old

An article in MarketWatch  by columnist Mark Hulbert says the bull market that began in March of 2009 “came to an end long ago. If we’re even in a bull market right now—and that is not for sure—an argument can be made that it’s less than three months old.” Given what Hulbert describes as the “semi-official” definition of a bear market is a 20% decline in one or more of the major market averages,” he… Read More

Hulbert: Sentiment a Good Sign for Contrarians

In an article for MarketWatch, columnist Mark Hulbert reports that “the typical stock-market timer remains extremely pessimistic. That, according to the contrarian’s logic, is a good sign.” Hulbert explains that, from the contrarian point of view, continued skepticism in the market is a good thing. He notes at the time of the article (last December), the average recommended equity exposure as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) stood at -15.6%, one of… Read More

Hulbert: Fund Performance is Largely Luck-Driven

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, Mark Hulbert makes the case that even over periods as long as ten years, investors stand a good chance of underperforming their benchmark, “simply because of bad luck in their timing.” The culprit is volatility, Hulbert argues, describing an experiment conducted by professors Eugene Fama and Ken French to test strategy performance. The experiment revealed that “for each of the investment strategies they studied, there was a significant… Read More