Oaktree’s Marks: Recession Isn’t Imminent

Although he sees no signs of an impending U.S. recession, Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks believes it’s time to “adopt a cautious investment strategy,” according to an article in Bloomberg. The economy is still doing well, Marks told Bloomberg TV in Sydney, adding that despite the dearth of bargains in many markets, “strategies should still focus on remaining invested and position defensively, without piling into cash.” Marks said he doesn’t believe a recession is coming… Read More

Gundlach: A Recession is Getting Closer

A recent Barron’s article featured an interview with DoubleLine Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach, who says the U.S. is getting closer to a recession. Here are some highlights: The economy and markets: Gundlach says that of the dozen indicators he finds helpful on a “forward-looking basis,” not a single one was negative at the beginning of this year. Today, he says, one that is somewhat negative is the yield curve, which has flattened “pretty relentlessly” for the… Read More

Economist Says U.S. Recession Possible in 12 Months

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., said that January’s high in the S&P 500 “will prove to be the peak of the bull market and the U.S. recession may start in the next 12 months.” This according to a recent article in Financial Advisor. Rosenberg, who the article reports was one of the first economists to warn of the Great Recession, spoke last month at the Inside ETFs Canada… Read More

Odds of Recession in U.S. are Modest, Higher in U.K.

While, historically, an inverted yield curve (short-term rates above long-term rates) has preceded the end of a bull market and the beginning of a recessionary environment, a recent Barron’s article argues that the risk in the U.S. is relatively modest. The article offers the example of how the U.S. stock market “peaked in 2000 and 2007 when the spread between three-month and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields inverted by about 50 basis points,” adding that while… Read More