Commodity Indexing May Be Futile

Index investing in the commodities market hasn’t done so well, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal. The article cites data from Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, who said that since January 1970, investors who held the S&P 500 for at least 12 years would “always have had positive returns including dividends.” Commodity indexes, however, have not provided that type of return, says PNC investment strategist Amanda Agati, who argues… Read More

Growth or Value: Who’s Driving the Bus?

Conventional wisdom suggests that value reigns at the beginning of bull markets and growth overtakes as the bull market progresses. But there is data that suggests another relationship: That is, that financials and tech play a dominant role in the respective strength of growth and value, this according to research by Standard & Poor’s Managing Director of US Equity Strategy, Sam Stovall. The correlation of monthly percentage changes in both the growth/value and tech/financials relative… Read More

The Uniqueness of the Current Bull Market According to S&P’s Stovall

Sam Stovall, Managing Director of US Equity Strategy for S&P Global Market Intelligence, writes that “this is one of the few times in which history might not even be a good guide . . . due to the limited number of times bull markets have made it this far.” He notes that “assuming this 12th bull market since WWII is still alive, it has lasted 84 months, vs. the average age of 56 months” and… Read More

The Long-lived, Rodney Dangerfield Bull Market Gets “No Respect”

A recent piece in Investment News notes that although the current bull market is “one of the longest stock rallies in history,” most investors nonetheless remain “lukewarm” toward stocks. While the average bull market lasts less than 59 months, this one has been ongoing for 84 months. The longest ever began in 1990 and ended in 2000. Since March 2009, the S&P 500 is up over 189% according to Morningstar. Yet, in roughly the same… Read More

Technical Analysis – Holy Grail, Fools Game or Somewhere In-between?

A recent article in Kiplinger explores technical analysis and its role in investment decision-making. The article suggests such analysis “works best when it’s part of a holistic look at the market.” Sam Stovall of S&P Capital IQ says, “Fundamentals tell you why, while technicals tell you the when and how far.” Some have a skeptical view, such as Andreas Clenow of Acies Asset Management, who compares it to “quasi-religious numerology” because it can “add to… Read More

Sonders, Stovall Cautiously Optimistic

Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Standard & Poor’s Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall are sounding cautiously optimistic about the economy and the stock market this year. In a joint interview with CNNMoney, Sonders says she thinks the tax plan approved late last year will help more than people think, and says she sees consumer confidence picking up in 2011, with both the stock market and economy providing a “relatively pleasant surprise”.… Read More

S&P’s Stovall: Retest in the Works

Sam Stovall, Standard & Poor’s chief investment strategist, offered some interesting data on whether this rally is for real in an interview with CNBC today. Stovall — who said back in March that the S&P 500 could rally 22 percent over the short term based on historical trends — says the market is due for a retest. “If history repeats itself, we would probably go through a retest,” he said. “We’re just at the beginning… Read More