The “Wizard of Wharton” Looks Ahead

In a recent interview with ThinkAdvisor, finance professor (and senior investment strategy advisor to Wisdom Tree Investments)  Jeremy Siegel shares his view on a host of issues affecting current market conditions:

Presidential election: The stock market would be “a little more comfortable with a Clinton victory, but they don’t love her at all.” With regard to a Trump win, “In the short run, there would be some negatives. But in the long run, I don’t think so.”

Biggest threat to the markets now and in 2017: The threat of terrorism and/or a potential foreign policy crisis if Trump gets elected.

Outlook on corporate earnings: “I think we’re coming out of an earnings recession.” Siegel expects to see “modest” top-line and earnings growth and believes that valuations are fairly low relative to interest rates. “If earnings don’t pick up, it would be hard to see any gains in stocks in 2017.”

On potential bubbles: Siegel doesn’t see any in the offing because he doesn’t see interest rates “heading up very strongly.”

Where to invest in the current low-yield environment: Seigel says “stocks are definitely the place to go. If you pick dividend-paying stocks, you’d get 3% or 4% with good growth possibility.”

Impact of Brexit: “Basically, it’s a non-event. No other country is following suit.”

Oulook for the S&P 500 and the Dow: It depends on earnings. Strong third-quarter earnings reports could boost both.