Top value investor Whitney Tilson recently gave an extensive presentation at the Value Investing Congress, saying he is “cautiously optimistic” that the U.S. economic recovery will continue and offering some of his top investing ideas.

“I am cautiously optimistic that a tepid economic recovery will continue in the U.S.,” Tilson said, “but with the S&P 500 up more than 16% YTD, the markets have already had a good year so I don’t see much upside unless the economy really takes off, which I think is unlikely.” (A tip of the hat to Business Insider for posting the presentation.) He also says several factors could derail the recovery, including problems in Europe, a downturn in the U.S. housing market, a hard landing for China, and a sovereign debt crisis in Japan.

Tilson suggests that high-quality blue-chip stocks are a much better option for long-term investors than bonds right now. Among the stocks he likes: Netflix, Berkshire Hathaway, and Howard Hughes Corp., each of which he examines in detail. Tilson also provides some very interesting charts and graphs about the economy, U.S. deficit, and stock and bond inflows/outflows.