In a recent CNBC interview, Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel shared insights on the outlook for interest rates and what that means for bondholders.
Here are some takeaways from Siegel’s comments:
- On balance, 2021 looks “quite positive” for stocks but not for bonds: “On the long end, I think Treasurys are going to be the single worst investment class in 2021.”
- Rates are headed “much higher,” to around 2% on the 10-year by the end of 2021, but could rise as high as 3% or 4% in 2022 because, says Siegel, “I think there’s going to be inflation far above the Fed target.”
- “Bond owners are not going to be happy.”
- Investor dollars will continue to flow out of bonds and into the stock market as they face few alternative investment opportunities available and won’t want to keep a lot of cash on hand—particularly if inflation is expected.