If the stock market has indeed already topped out, it would be an aberration by historical standards, Mark Hulbert says.
In his MarketWatch column, Hulbert looks at a handful of indicators that have accompanied previous market tops, and finds that they aren’t flashing “end of the line” signals. Sentiment, for example, remains far from the bullish levels seen at past tops; monetary conditions are “no worse than neutral”; and valuation conditions are also “no worse than neutral”. Only technical indicators are flashing a warning sign, Hulbert says.
“The bottom line?” Hulbert writes. “Two of the four categories are no worse than neutral, and one is outright bullish. Only one is bearish enough to be consistent with a major market top forming. This discussion doesn’t guarantee that a top hasn’t formed, of course. But, given the weight of the evidence, it would certainly appear as though the better bet is that new bull market highs are still ahead.”