Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute continues to say that the U.S. is in a recession that began in the middle of 2012. Achuthan tells Bloomberg Surveillance that initial GDP readings are often revised downward by 2% to 4% during recessions, meaning the weak growth numbers we’ve seen over the past year or so could actually be revised into negative territory. As for the strong manufacturing data coming from the Institute for Supply Management in recent months, Achuthan says the correlation between ISM’s manufacturing reports and actual production has “collapsed” in recent years. He thinks markets have become somewhat disconnected from fundamentals, and says the Federal Reserve’s efforts to generate a “wealth effect” may be pushing stocks higher, but they aren’t pushing the economy higher.
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