A recent Wall Street Journal piece notes that hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio and others have discussed potentially significant parallels between 1937 and 2015. Dalio, in a March letter earlier this year, identified the following comparable timeline:
- Debt limits reached at “the bubble top” in 1929 and in 2007;
- Interest rates fall to zero in 1931 and 2008;
- Money printing begins a “beautiful deleveraging” in 1933 and 2009;
- Stocks and “risky assets” rally in 1933-36 and 2009-14, during which the economy improves through cyclical recovery; and
- The central bank tightens, producing a “self-reinforcing downturn” in 1937 and, maybe, 2015.
Others have suggested 2011 is a better comparison. The distinction matters. 2011 kicked off significant gains; 1937 triggered a downturn. The 1937 camp seems to be growing according to some.