Bullishness as a Contrarian Sell Signal

Bullishness as a Contrarian Sell Signal

A Bank of America gauge of market bullishness is approaching a level “that historically has been bearish for stocks,” according to a recent article in Bloomberg.

The BofA measure—which “tracks the average recommended allocation to equities by sell-side strategists—is reportedly close to triggering a sell signal, according to its recent report that states, “We’ve found Wall Street bullishness to be a reliable contrarian indicator.”

The article reports that worries about the negative impact on stocks of higher bond yields that emerged at the end of February evaporated earlier this month, “with U.S. equities notching their biggest advance since June.” This was underscored by the record amount of cash channeled to stock ETFs in February “as investors bet additional fiscal stimulus and the Covid-19 vaccine rollout” which is expected to boost economic growth.

The article concludes, however, that although investors have “come to terms with the recent upheaval in bond markets for now, an ongoing shakeout could spark fresh angst, particularly if real yields keep rising.”