Writing in Adviser Perspectives, mathematician and economist Michael Edesess discusses Philip Tetlock’s work examining “superforecasters” with co-author Dan Gardner. Superforecasters, as Edesess explains, are the few volunteers in Tetlock’s forecasting…
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DoubleLine's Gundlach Identifies Downward Pressures, Warns Against Fed Rate Hike
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, delivered a fairly grim assessment in a recent webcast, Financial Advisor reports. Characterizing the recent bump in stocks as a bear-market rally, Gundlach pointed…
Style Drift Can Play a Role in Outperformance
Former Morningstar analyst John Coumarianos says, “my research shows that some funds with the best records over the past 15 years moved to different parts of the style box.” Writing…
Jack Bogle's Advice for the Individual Investor
The AAII Journal published an interview with Vanguard founder John “Jack” Bogle, to whom AAII gave its Cloonan Award for Excellence in Investment Education in 2015. The interview focuses on…
Hulbert on Market-Timing Sentiment and a Contrarian View
In his MarketWatch column, Mark Hulbert discusses the relationship of market timers and contrarians when it comes to sentiment and market performance. Noting that it is possible “short-term market timers…
A Lesson from the Modesty of Warren Buffett's Recent Returns
Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch highlights Warren Buffet’s annual letter (the link includes a short video summary), but mainly emphasizes one crucial point that he suggests is a broadly important lesson…
Sticking With the Best Alpha Generators
Barron’s profiles Dan Wiener, who runs The Independent Adviser newsletter , founded the firm Adviser Investments, and was ranked number 69 on Barron’s list of the top independent investment advisers.…
The Small-Cap Premium Lives Despite Its Doubters
Larry Swedroe of Buckingham (and director of research with The BAM Alliance) writes on ETF.com that “investors should be suspicious of claims that they can benefit from well-known information,” making…
AAII Sentiment Survey – A Contrarian Indicator?
A brief piece in the Wall Street Journal by reporter Steven Russolillo comments on the American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly survey of sentiment, which is often regarded as a…
NYU Prof, Damodaran, on Price vs. Value: Reading Earnings Reports
NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran writes in the blog Musings on Markets about “the pricing and value game and how they play out, especially around earnings season.” Contrasting the two…