Mark Hulbert writes in MarkWatch: “not infrequently, a bear-market declaration often amounts to little more than closing the barn door after the horses have left.” A bear market is typically…
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No Bear Market says Cooperman
Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors doesn’t think a bear market is coming. He quoted Sir John Templeton: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and…
Six Valuation Measures Indicate Market is Still Overvalued
Mark Hulbert opines in MarketWatch that “The stock market has to fall a lot further before the valuation indicators will be blowing in the direction of higher prices.” He looks…
The Year Ahead: "We Have No Idea," Says Recent Analysis
A recent report on the market year ahead began, “We have no idea.” Authored by Paul Hickey, Justin Walters, and George Pearkes, the report published by Bespoke Investment Group describes…
Personal Finance is Personal Writes Housel
Financial analyst Morgan Housel draws a parallel between medicine and investing to make a simple, but important, point: “personal finance is deeply personal” so “coming up with a solution that…
Four Stand-out Managers Over the Long-term
Barron’s profiles the four fund managers whose funds had, as of November 30, beat the S&P 500 for one, three, five, 10, and 25 years under their management. These are…
How Market Surprises can Impact your Thinking
Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal highlights the effects of surprises on investor psychology, drawing on neuroscience and historical events back to the 18th century. Robert Shiller of Yale…
Should You Put Faith in the January Barometer?
The New York Times reports on the so-called “January barometer” posited by Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac, first published in 1968, and which his son, Jeff Hirsch, has recently called…
Lessons from Granville's Error and the Risks of Market Timing
Barry Ritholtz, founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management and columnist for Bloomberg, briefly recounts the story of Joseph Granville to convey the risk of “1) try[ing] to time markets; 2) tak[ing]…
Is Long-Term Forecasting Valuable?
A Financial Times article highlights and challenges the common practice of long-term forecasting. Opening with a George Eliot quote – “Among all forms of mistake, prophesy is the most gratuitous”…