While equity markets have struggled in recent weeks, Blackrock’s Bob Doll says it’s not the start of a bear market.
“Although markets have been troubled in recent weeks, we do not believe investors should confuse the current situation with an ending to the bull market that has been in force since early 2009,” Doll writes in his latest commentary on Blackrock’s site. “Historically, sustained declines in equity prices tend to be associated with either economic downturns or earnings recessions, neither of which appears to be in the cards.”
Doll says the European debt situation is a “significant downside risk,” but doesn’t think it will derail the global economy. He also says the fears of big economic problems for China are overblown.
“Bearish sentiment has increased in recent weeks and confidence has taken a hit,” Doll adds. “At present, the risk premium for US stocks looks high to us, which implies that the markets have already discounted some significant downside risk in share prices. The risks are real, but in our view, as long as the economy is able to continue along the path of recovery, the risk premium should fall in the coming months. As such, we maintain our view that the current bull market has not yet reached a peak.”
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