Nuveen’s chief equity strategist Bob Doll says the global stock market should continue to rise despite risks, according to his recent Barron’s article.
Doll argues that investor confidence has increased with respect to corporate earnings and the global economy and that, although volatility may rise, equities should outperform bonds and cash in the year ahead. Inflation, he says, remains “well contained in most major markets outside of the United Kingdom,” and that investors are banking on further rate increases in the face of continued growth and moderate inflation.
While the recent string of natural disasters is likely to negatively impact third-quarter growth, Doll says he expects “rebuilding efforts will likely lift U.S. growth in 2018.” He adds that most leading indicators are in “positive territory, consumer spending is solid and capital expenditures appear to be on the rise.” He also argues that potential tax reform could further bolster the economy next year.
Doll refers to recent earnings growth, low bond yields and low market volatility as a “three-legged stool” that has boosted equities and other risk assets. Of the trifecta, he says, earnings are the key factor. While he expects they may continue to rise through the end of this year, he argues that “the pace of earnings growth may trail off from that point, especially given that year-over-year comparisons could become more difficult.”
“On balance,” Doll concludes, “we continue to advocate an overweight to risk assets, given our expectation for improving global economic growth and corporate earnings.”