Strategists at Goldman Sachs are forecasting the probability of a recession in the U.S. could be as high as 35% and have lowered their growth forecasts as oil prices skyrocket and the war in Ukraine continues, reports Bloomberg.
Growth expectations were cut from 2.0% down to 1.75%, and that outlook points to the chances of a recession in the next 12 months are generally “in line with the 20%-35% odds currently implied by models based on the slope of the yield curve,” Goldman economists wrote in a note. The new forecast takes into account that higher oil and agricultural prices will cut into disposable incomes, resulting in lower potential growth for the first and second quarters of 2022, as well as overall growth for the year.
The Fed has reiterated that the central bank will raise rates in March, the first in a series of rate hikes in an effort to curtail inflation. But Fed chairman Jerome Powell said they are moving “carefully” in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund will almost certainly revise its projection for global growth this year as well, due to the war. In January, the fund had already cut its projection for this year to 4.4%, pointing to continued inflation and reduced prospects in the U.S. and China.