Gundlach: Lower Recession Odds and Credit Warnings

Bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach says the odds of a recession are lower and advises investors to avoid corporate debt due to a weaker dollar. This according to an article in Bloomberg.

The article reports that after predicting a 75% chance for recession in September, last month Gundlach lowered his forecast to a 35% chance of recession by the end of next year. In a recent webcast, he explained that his view is “based upon consumer confidence holding up” and leading economic indicators that “have not gone below zero” as they typically do before recessions.

Gundlach also underscored his concerns about the U.S. credit market, particularly with respect to BBB-rated debt. He argued that if such debt was to be downgraded, the securities would fall into the high-yield category and force fund managers to divest.

Regarding interest rates, Gundlach said he expects them to move higher in the long term. He also predicts that President Trump will win re-election because “the economy will likely avoid recession and the field of Democratic candidates is weak.”