Bridgewater Talk on Global Outlook: Is Stagflation Next?

Earlier this month, Bridgewater Senior Portfolio Strategist Jim Haskel discussed the current market environment with the firm’s Co-CIO Greg Jensen including the global outlook as the Covid-19 pandemic continues, the challenges faced by policy makers and the prospects for deflation, inflation or stagflation. Here are some highlights: Jensen emphasized how ­­we are facing a “rare set of circumstances” because the current crisis is a result of an income shock—rather than a credit shock, which triggered… Read More

Where Will the Stock Market Be in Six Months? No One Can Agree

A fifth of respondents in a recent survey predicted the S&P 500 will be up more than 10% by the end of this year, about the same number who predict it will be down by that amount. This according to a recent Bloomberg article. Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research (the firm that conducted the survey) wrote that in the 341 responses received “every option from ‘really bad’ (down +10% from here) to ‘really good’… Read More

2020 Forecasts and How to Beat Them

A recent article in CFA Institute advises investors to “rely on the wisdom of the crowd and follow the expert consensus forecast rather than any individual prediction.” According to the article, new research shows that the consensus forecast of individual economists “beats even that of the most skilled single economist,” and claims there is a simple way to outperform such a forecast. It cites a German study involving the analysis of over 150,000 stock market… Read More

Gundlach: Lower Recession Odds and Credit Warnings

Bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach says the odds of a recession are lower and advises investors to avoid corporate debt due to a weaker dollar. This according to an article in Bloomberg. The article reports that after predicting a 75% chance for recession in September, last month Gundlach lowered his forecast to a 35% chance of recession by the end of next year. In a recent webcast, he explained that his view is “based upon consumer… Read More

The “Raging Bull” Could Be Running Out of Steam

The mood surrounding today’s stock market seems to be rife with contradiction, according to an article in yesterday’s Fortune. “At today’s elevated prices,” it argues, “the market math contradicts Wall Street’s sunny outlook.” The article cites a recent interview with Goldman Sachs’ chief global equities strategist Peter Oppenheim that supports the thesis. While Oppenheim argued that the Trump effect has “overpriced the ability of the administration to push through some of the things the market… Read More

Thomas Lee Expects Market Dip in 2017

Managing partner and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, Thomas Lee, has changed his typically rosy tune about the direction the market will take in the year ahead, according to a Bloomberg article from last week. Once the “most vocal champion on U.S. stocks,” the article says he is now “its biggest bear.” In a client note from earlier this month, Lee predicts that the S&P 500 will finish the year at 2,275, “about 3 percent… Read More