Newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert says market sentiment has gotten “disturbingly high”, which could mean trouble for the market, in the shorter term, at least.
“The Wall of Worry that existed as recently as earlier this month has now largely disintegrated — and given way to the veritable Slope of Hope on which market declines typically thrive,” Hulbert writes in his latest MarketWatch column. He says that the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timers he tracks is now at 73.3%; the only times it has been higher in 2010 were in early November and late April/early May — both of which were right around times the market hit short-term highs.
Hulbert says other sentiment measures, including Investors Intelligence’s survey of investment advisors and Ned Davis Research’s Crowd Sentiment Poll, are both showing very high levels of bullishness. Hulbert does note that Ned Davis himself is “giving the rally the benefit of the doubt until it reverses direction”, however.