Has the bond market reached a peak? Not if history is any guide, says MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert.
Hulbert recently looked at the average bond market exposure for bond market timers he tracks at Hulbert Financial Digest. He found that those with the best track records on average have an 89% exposure to the bond market; those with the worst track records on average had -42% exposure.
“The more typical pattern at market tops is for the spread between the consensus of the best and worst timers to begin shrinking — either because the top performers have reduced their recommended exposure levels, or because the bottom performers increased theirs, or both,” writes Hulbert. “This is not what we’re seeing right now, needless to say. Since the beginning of this year, for example, the consensus of the top bond timers has stayed both high and constant, while the worst timers have become even more bearish.”
Hulbert uses a similar approach to show that the gold bull market may not be done, either, even though it looked like the end might be coming earlier this month.