Economic Data Can Lead Us Astray

Short-term macroeconomic data can pose challenges for analysis of policy changes, according to an article in Bloomberg. “Every time a new macro data point comes out,” it says, “commentators rush…

The Pitfalls of Back Testing

By Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) —   Active investment managers have a pretty dismal long-term record. Depending on which study you look at somewhere between 80% and 90% of managers underperform their benchmarks…

It's Hard to Predict Bear Markets

A recent Vanguard blog discusses the challenges faced when trying to predict a market downturn. “While all bear markets involve a loss of investor confidence,” it says, “an assortment of…