The stock market won’t thrive again until ARK Innovation is dead, maintains an article inThe Wall Street Journal, citing a Wall Street insider who said that he doesn’t believe a bull market will happen until Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has utterly failed.
But even though ARK Innovation has lost 75% of its value from its February 2021 peak, it’s still raking in new money: about $2 billion in 2022 alone. And many investors are holding fast to other stocks that have had a dizzying fall, such as GameStop. That likely means we haven’t hit capitulation yet; that moment in the market when everyone gives up and sells off historically indicates that a rebound is nigh. For instance, in October 2008 after the S&P 500 had lost 38%, many believed that was the bottom, but the bottom didn’t actually come until March 2009 and a further 31% loss for the S&P 500. And the Nasdaq Composite Index saw 8 rallies in the 2 1/2 years after the dot-com crash in March 2000, the article details.
While some measures point to a high degree of pessimism amongst investors, that could have more to do with sky-high gas prices and doom-and-gloom geopolitical headlines, the article contends. And there is still some optimism that the Fed will change course, resulting in a rally. Investors are still scared of losing out if that happens, and following the traditional advice of buying the dip. That sentiment doesn’t indicate capitulation, though one measure—Bank of America’s monthly fund manager survey—did show the highest levels of lower-than-usual risk-taking since the 2008 financial crisis. And though it may be a futile exercise to pinpoint exactly when we’ve hit bottom, paying close attention to Wood’s ARK may be key, and the fact that she is still quite popular is a good indication that we probably aren’t there yet.