By Jack Forehand, CFA, CFP® (@practicalquant) — We have just reached the end of 2021 annual forecasting season. It is the time of year when market strategists tell you where the market will…
Tag: forecasting
Wall Street Forecasters Are At It Again for 2021
Despite decades of academic research showing that “nobody can reliably and accurately forecast what the stock market will do,” a recent article in the New York Times reports that Wall…
Excess Returns: Episode 8: Perils of Market Forecasting
We have just completed market prediction season. It’s the time of year where there are countless forecasts about what the economy will do in the new year. Its when experts…
Stock Market Forecasts are Mostly Worthless
A recent article in The New York Times suggests ignoring the predictions of Wall Street strategists in favor of investing in cheap, diversified index funds. “Strategists, some of whom are…
The Perils of Market Forecasting
By Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) — It’s that time of year again. The time of year where all the market experts make their 2020 predictions. You will see countless forecasts about…
Forecasters are Usually Wrong, But Foxes Are Better At It
A provocative article in The Atlantic highlights the unsuccessful track record of “expert” forecasters, regardless of their area of specialty or level of experience. However, the article points out that…
Economic Forecasters Keep Getting It Wrong
Despite the word on the street, we’re not in an economic boom. This according to a recent article in The New York Times. “The economy has been mired in an…
10 Forecasting Guidelines
A recent article in CFA Institute provides a list of ten guidelines to use when making economic forecasts: Data matters: “Always base your forecasts on data, not qualitative arguments.” Data-mining…
2019 Predictions Will Miss the Mark, or Worse
A Bloomberg article by columnist Barry Ritholtz notes that this is the time of year when prognostications surface from strategists and analysts but asserts that they are, “for the most…
Beware of Expert Forecasts
A recent CFA Institute article argues that “not even the most credible forecasters can time the market profitably with any consistency,” noting that celebrated economists and market pundits are fallible…