10 Forecasting Guidelines

A recent article in CFA Institute provides a list of ten guidelines to use when making economic forecasts: Data matters: “Always base your forecasts on data, not qualitative arguments.” Data-mining…

Beware of Expert Forecasts

A recent CFA Institute article argues that “not even the most credible forecasters can time the market profitably with any consistency,” noting that celebrated economists and market pundits are fallible…

The 40% Rule in Forecasting

 A recent article in The Wall Street Journal discusses the 40% rule, which it describes as “a favorite forecasting tactic of Wall Street analysts and other prognosticators trying to make…