Despite the word on the street, we’re not in an economic boom. This according to a recent article in The New York Times. “The economy has been mired in an…
Tag: forecasting
10 Forecasting Guidelines
A recent article in CFA Institute provides a list of ten guidelines to use when making economic forecasts: Data matters: “Always base your forecasts on data, not qualitative arguments.” Data-mining…
2019 Predictions Will Miss the Mark, or Worse
A Bloomberg article by columnist Barry Ritholtz notes that this is the time of year when prognostications surface from strategists and analysts but asserts that they are, “for the most…
Beware of Expert Forecasts
A recent CFA Institute article argues that “not even the most credible forecasters can time the market profitably with any consistency,” noting that celebrated economists and market pundits are fallible…
The 40% Rule in Forecasting
A recent article in The Wall Street Journal discusses the 40% rule, which it describes as “a favorite forecasting tactic of Wall Street analysts and other prognosticators trying to make…
Focus on Fundamentals Rather than "Expert" Forecasts
By John Reese (@guruinvestor) — American philosopher and educator Nicholas Murray Butler once said, ” An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until he…
Ritholtz on Why We're Bad at Forecasting
Forecasts are unproductive, writes Barry Ritholtz in a recent Bloomberg article, and we should not make investment decisions based on them. Ritholtz offers a list of reminders for readers of…
Ritholtz on the Foibles of Forecasting
Barry Ritholtz, columnist and founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management, offers insights on the “problems and investing risks of forecasting” in a recent Bloomberg View. He explains that, because people dislike…
Beware of Rosy Stock Market Predictions
We’ve written before about the precarious nature of forecasts, and an article in last week’s Wall Street Journal sings the same tune—that investors shouldn’t get “carried away” with predictions that…
The Frailty of Market Predictions
The unexpected Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s presidential election victory both occurred despite overwhelming predictions to the contrary, writes John Reese in a recent article for The Globe and Mail.…