Ritholtz on the Yield-Curve Inversion

In a recent Bloomberg article, columnist Barry Ritholtz wrote that the yield-curve inversion that occurred earlier this month begs the question: “What might trigger the next recession and what might it look like?” He lists the following potential triggers, as “cited by pundits and commentators:” Geopolitical events—including an escalation in the Middle East that could “send oil prices spiraling” or unforeseen events such as a “potential pandemic developing in China.” Tech— “Gains in tech stocks… Read More

Recession Coming Soon? Not According to Google Trends

Google trends data are not showing that a U.S. recession is looming, says a recent article in Bloomberg. Analysis by the firm DataTrek Research shows that Google queries for coupons, unemployment and television give “little cause for concern just now.” In a recent note to clients, the firm’s co-founder Nicholas Colas added, “If the Federal Reserve looked at Google Trends they might not be so inclined to cut rates next week.” In his note, Colas… Read More

The U.S. Expansion is Still Going

In a recent Bloomberg article, columnist Nir Kaissar suggests that the current extended period of economic growth—albeit raising plenty of questions among some market-watchers—may have a ways to go. Kaissar cites comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said the U.S. is “on a good path for this year” due to healthy growth, a strong labor market and low inflation. He also cited comments shared by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in… Read More

Should the Coming Yield Curve Inversion Frighten Investors?

A recent article in Forbes discusses the growing buzz about an impending yield curve inversion and the repercussions for the economy and stock market. “Inverted yield curves have successfully warned about each of the seven recessions over the past 50 years,” the article reports, “which is why investors keep an eye out for them.” When an inversion takes place (the difference between short- and long-term yields falls below zero), the article notes, it “warns that… Read More

Signals from the U.S. Yield Curve

The difference between the two-and ten-year Treasury yield is the narrowest since 2007, a signal that “the market thinks the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases, which are driving short-term yields higher, will not only slow inflation, but could also tip the economy into a recession.” This according to a recent Bloomberg article. The article outlines several reasons “to be worried about the economy:” Trade wars: Tariffs, the article says, “will lead to some self-imposed inflation, a… Read More