A recent paper by Research Affiliates highlights parallels among six bear markets in the U.S. that were accompanied by recessions to “improve our understanding of their unique risks and opportunities.”…
Tag: Stock Market History
Excess Returns, Ep. 20: The Limits to Lessons from Past Bear Markets
Whenever we are confronted with a bear market, we all want to figure out how it will play out. We want to know how big the decline will be. We…
History Tells Us When the Dow Will Bounce Back
While no one knows for sure what will happen as the market continues to react to coronavirus developments, “history could perhaps strengthen the resolve of aggressive traders debating whether or…
Testing the Buy-and-Hold Gospel
A recent Wall Street Journal article by columnist Jason Zweig dispels myths regarding history’s market crashes and offers insights regarding how they relate to today’s market and to a “buy-and-hold”…
Five Questions: Lessons From Finance History with Jamie Catherwood
By Jack Forehand, CFA (@practicalquant) Recency bias can be a major issue for many investors. When we analyze the probability of any event in the market occurring, we tend to…
How History Informs the Valuation Discussion
In a recent article for Fortune, Ben Carlson writes, ”Market valuations are an important input into the investing process. But the relationship between the markets and valuations is far from…
A Look at How the Largest Market-Cap Companies Have Changed
A recent article in Visual Capitalist reflects on how the make-up of the world’s largest companies has changed over the past twenty years through a series of charts and explains,…
The Next Bear Market Could See a 35% Dip in Dow
In a recent article for MarketWatch, columnist Mark Hulbert explains that the severity of the next bear market has become a pressing question of late, “since Wall Street has shifted…
Hulbert: The Bull Market is Only Three Months Old
An article in MarketWatch by columnist Mark Hulbert says the bull market that began in March of 2009 “came to an end long ago. If we’re even in a bull…
The Benefits of Base Rates
By Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) — Wall Street prediction season is upon us. It is the time of year when all the major investment banks and market pundits will issue their 2019…