The Gurus Accessorize with Coach

In his latest Seeking Alpha column, Validea CEO John Reese takes a look at a luxury goods stock that’s getting strong scores from his guru-inspired models: Coach Inc.

Reese notes that Coach shares have stumbled over the past year and a half, with the latest negative catalyst being a downward revision to its forward guidance. “Some weakness in North America, in part due to increased competition, is a driving factor behind the guidance change. Investors also may be nervous that Coach is in the process of changing up its business model, shifting from a handbag/accessory specialist to more of a ‘lifestyle brand,’ a la Louis Vuitton,” Reese explains. “But it looks like the declines are an overreaction. That’s what my Joel Greenblatt- and Benjamin Graham-based approaches … are telling me. Both of these models look for companies with strong balance sheets that are trading at attractive prices, and that’s just what they see in Coach.”

Reese says the Graham- and Greenblatt-inspired models recently triggered a “Trade Alert” for Coach. Historically, stocks that have triggered this alert have gone on to gain an average of about 19% over the next six months, beating the S&P 500 about 70% of the time. Reese looks at the specific reasons why these two models are high on Coach, and why the firm has the sort of “durable competitive advantage” that Warren Buffett likes to see.