Bob Doll Talks Trump – 10 Takeaways for Investors

In this week’s Barron’s, Nuveen Asset Management’s chief investment strategist shared his list of the primary implications for investors of the Trump victory:

  • Equity markets may remain generally positive toward Trump’s victory, for now. The rally in risk assets and the sell-off in Treasuries likely reflects that markets had priced in the probability of divided government.
  • We expect further upward pressure on bond yields. Since its low point over the summer, the increase in the 10-year Treasury yield reflects a combination of rising inflation expectations, a possible increase in debt issuance and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
  • The political effect on markets next year will largely depend on how President Trump focuses his efforts. A focus on tax reform and similar issues would likely be a plus for corporate earnings and equity prices, while one of protectionist trade and immigration policies could depress growth and stock prices.
  • President-Elect Trump has limited political capital and will need to prioritize. His focus in the first 100 days will go a long way toward determining how markets respond to his presidency.
  • If Washington emphasizes pro-growth initiatives, we may see an upside breakout in U.S. economic growth. A possible cut in corporate tax rates could boost productivity, profits and personal income. Deregulation could enhance business investment. Additional infrastructure spending could also act as a modest economic tailwind.
  • Comprehensive tax reform is very likely early in 2017. Corporate tax reform is very high on the agenda for both Donald Trump and Congressional leaders
  • Washington must grapple with a growing federal budget deficit.
  • President Trump’s policies may further affect equity sector leadership. Since the summer, we have seen a rotation away from low-volatility and yield-generating sectors toward undervalued, economically-sensitive areas that tend to have high levels of free cash flow. Looking ahead, we think health care and financials will continue to benefit from the new political environment, while utilities and consumer staples may struggle.
  • President Trump will likely be the most unpredictable and unconventional president in modern history. In addition to a lack of clarity surrounding many policies and priorities, Trump will enter office with few allegiances in Washington—and this is likely to contribute to uncertainty and volatility.
  • The large number of unknowns will also likely fuel greater volatility. Investors seek answers to many questions, and the answers may have far-reaching implications for the economy and financial markets.