Market Timing an “Exercise in Futility”, Swensen Says

In an interview with the Financial Times, Yale endowment chief David Swensen says that market timing is a futile exercise, and that investors should only invest in what they understand. Swensen, who has built an exceptional long-term track record by investing largely in illiquid assets, tells the Times’ Chrystia Freeland that even if he could have, he wouldn’t have shifted large amounts of money into safe Treasury bills before the financial crisis last year. Swensen… Read More

Biggs Sees More Gains on Horizon

Hedge fund guru Barton Biggs says he thinks stocks are going to continue to go higher, and expects another 10% to 15% gain for the market. Biggs offered that assessment to Bloomberg TV, basing his belief on an analysis of previous secular bear markets and their ensuing recoveries. He also says he’s heartened by the way the global economy is recovering, but adds that he’s skeptical we’ll see new market highs in the near future.… Read More

Hulbert: Sentiment Remains Weak — and that’s Good

While the market is now up about 60% from its March low, newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert says that most managers remain very cautious — and that’s a sign the rally has more room to run. Hulbert says on MarketWatch.com that the average recommended equity exposure among short-term market timing newsletters is just 32.3%, which is lower than it was at the beginning of October, and even lower than where it was at the beginning of… Read More

Dorfman Sees Rally Continuing for Several Months — at Least

Money manager and Bloomberg columnist John Dorfman — who was ahead of the curve in forecasting the market rebound — says he thinks the rally will continue well into next year. “I feel fairly confident that the gains will chug along through at least the first quarter of 2010,” writes Dorfman. “In the past century, there have been 11 violent declines in the stock market, including the 2008-2009 disaster. In nine of the 10 previous… Read More

Doll: Growth to Be Subpar, But Stocks Should Rise

In Consuelo Mack’s latest WealthTrack interview, Blackrock’s Bob Doll says he sees subpar growth on the horizon for the U.S. — but rising equity prices as well. Doll, vice chairman and global chief investment officer for equities at Blackrock, says he expects real GDP growth of 3% to 4% for the rest of 2009, but only 2% to 3% real growth in 2010 — quite low for a recovery. But he also says that cyclical… Read More

Miller Continues to Rebound, Likes Financials, Healthcare

Bill Miller, the legendary Legg Mason Value Trust manager who beat the market for 15 straight years before falling on very tough times in the past three, is almost doubling the S&P 500 in 2009, and is high on financials, healthcare, and technology stocks. Miller tells Barron’s that in the next five to 10 years the market will see “a long-lasting rally in very high quality mega-caps after this one-year ‘dash to trash.’ … You… Read More

Top Forecasting Group: V-Shaped Recovery Unstoppable

The managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute — whose leading indicators have a very solid track record of predicting economic trends — says we’re in the early stages of a “V”-shaped recovery that will be “virtually unstoppable” through the first half of 2010. “We are in the early stages of the recovery and it looks to be a lot stronger” than the consensus, Lakshman Achuthan told Yahoo! TechTicker. The ECRI’s index of Weekly… Read More

Icahn: Opportunities are there, but Amateur Investors Beware

Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn tells CNBC that the economy is on a “precipice” and the market is “schizophrenic”, but he still sees opportunities in some areas. Icahn says he sees plays in advertising, telecom, the Internet and bankruptcies, but he also says amateur investors need to be very cautious because another downturn in the economy could result in a “bloodbath”. And, he says he doesn’t understand why “any individual in their right mind” would… Read More

Rogers on Which Chinese Sectors to Watch

Canada’s Globe & Mail is running a number of interview clips with commodities guru Jim Rogers, focusing on Rogers’ thoughts on the potential hot-bed of growth in China. In this clip, Rogers talks about some of the sectors that he thinks are the best places to invest in China. Among his favorites: agriculture, education, and infrastructure. In other segments, Rogers offers his thoughts on his broader China strategy, currency investing, the impact Chinese politics could… Read More

Soros Sees Slow U.S. Recovery — But He’s Still Buying Stocks

While hedge fund guru George Soros has been saying that a U.S. economic recovery is a ways off, he’s still buying up shares in some stocks, The Wall Street Journal reports. Soros Fund Management, which gained 32% in 2007 and 8% last year, recently reported that it upped its stakes in energy firms InterOil Corp. and Headwaters Inc. Almost a third of the fund’s equity assets were invested in energy companies as of its most… Read More