Short-Sellers’ Plight in a Bull Market

A recent article in Institutional Investor discusses the plight of short-sellers in the now nine-year bull market which, the article says, “is punishing these defiant minority investors to the point where it’s become hard to stay relevant as a group.” While a bullish market can provide short-sellers with “glaring opportunities for profit,” the article argues that they are also “battling animal spirits and the prevailing optimistic views of the companies they’re betting against.” They can… Read More

Mark Hulbert on the Reality of Buybacks

The new tax legislation will encourage companies to repatriate much of the cash they now hold outside the U.S., much of which could find its way to stock repurchases, writes Mark Hulbert in a recent Barron’s article. But the expected surge in buybacks, he argues, “isn’t going to extend the bull market’s life longer than it would have lasted otherwise.” Hulbert cites the first research regarding share repurchases (published in the 1990s) which found that… Read More

Stock Market Lessons Learned in 2017

By John Reese (@guruinvestor) — Over the past twelve months, we’ve seen the bull market continue to trudge ahead with highs in many U.S. indexes and growth in various sectors and industries. With the news of major tax reform comes optimism for continued corporate earnings strength. That said, however, there are also growing concerns regarding an overvalued market and a potential correction. Let’s review what we’ve learned over the past twelve months: Bull markets don’t… Read More

Is There a Red Flag in Front of this Bull?

This May marks the one-year anniversary of the record high in U.S. stocks, but don’t break out the champagne just yet. This milestone is sparking some concern as to whether the other shoe is about to drop, and the jitters are based on more than just a hunch. There’s been only one bull market since 1900 that has experienced a correction lasting longer than a year and, next week, we’ll be passing that. The question is: are things different now than in very other… Read More

Understanding the Seven Phases of Bull Markets and Why this Bull Market is Still Alive

Ron Meisels, founder and president of the independent research firm Phases & Cycles, says that we are in a defined pause in a bull market that will resume late this year and continue through 2016. Meisels contends that market cycles have seven phases – five bullish and two bearish – and in the fourth phase, a consolidation before the bull market enters its fifth and final phase.  “A bull market goes through lags and corrections,… Read More

Fisher: Market Correction Mirroring 1997. Bull Will Resume.

Ken Fisher, Fisher Investments chairman & CEO, says this correction looks very similar to that of 1997, which was referred to as the Asian Contagion. Like then, this correction has been influenced largely by uncertainty around currencies. Also similarly to 1997, the most recent correction is during a period of low interest rates, falling commodity prices and has come after a long period of time without the market seeing a 10% pullback. In addition, according… Read More

Bull Runs: How they Happen

Money magazine recently offered some interesting data on the relationship between the economy and the stock market. In the chart below, you can see how the market, on average, has risen during the first year of bull markets since 1980. What’s key to note is that as the market starts its rise — and, in fact, as it gets well into its rise — the economy typically is far from sparkling. “History shows that bull… Read More