Keep Steering Clear of Long-Term Treasuries, Hulbert Warns

In his latest column for Barron’s, Mark Hulbert warns that “a careful analysis of the bond market leads to the same conclusion as six months ago: Long-term bets in the U.S. Treasury market would certainly appear to have a low probability of success.” According to Hulbert, the current 30-year Treasury yield (4.3%) isn’t nearly high enough to compensate investors for tying up their money for 30 years. Based on Yale economist Robert Shiller’s data, long-term… Read More

Bear Market Winners: A Good Long-Term Bet?

Given the major trauma the events of 2008 and early 2009 had on investors, it might seem hard to blame someone for latching onto the advice of the relatively few strategists who have fared well — or at least not that badly — during the bear market. But according to newsletter-tracker Mark Hulbert, doing so could be a very bad idea. In a recent special report for the American Association of Individual Investors, Hulbert writes… Read More

Newsletter with Best 3-Decade Track Record Goes All-In

The top-performing market-timing newsletter of the past three decades has turned “aggressively bullish”, Mark Hulbert writes on MarketWatch.com. The Chartist, edited by Dan Sullivan, has the best track record of any of the market-timing letters Hulbert has followed since his Hulbert Financial Digest began tracking newsletter performance nearly 30 years ago. “In a communication to subscribers Monday evening, Sullivan recommended that subscribers move from being only partially invested in equities to being fully invested,” Hulbert… Read More

Top Timing Newsletters All Bullish

The seven most successful market-timing newsletters are all bullish, writes MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert, who tracks investment newsletters’ performance at his Hulbert Financial Digest. Hulbert says he searched his database for newsletters that outperformed buy-and-hold strategies in the 2000-2002 bear market, the current bear market, and the bull market that occurred in between. He found that just seven of the almost 200 newsletters he tracks have beaten the market in all three of those separate periods… Read More

Hulbert: Fear Is Encouraging

In his latest column for MarketWatch, newsletter-watcher Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest makes an interesting observation about fear and contrarian investing, one that echoes the findings of one of the great gurus we follow, Martin Zweig. Writing about the recent Las Vegas Money Show, Hulbert says that sentiment among the conference’s presenters was decidedly conservative and measured. “More often than not, they devoted their talks and workshops to managing risk and avoiding further losses… Read More

The Great Depression “25-Year Recovery” Myth

If you’re worried about stocks taking a period of many, many years to recover following the recent market plunge, Mark Hulbert offers some insightful — and encouraging — news in The New York Times. While many have cited the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average took 25 years to get back to its pre-Great-Depression highs as reason to worry that the coming market recovery could take a upwards of 10 or even 20 years,… Read More

Stocks for The Long Run — Riskier than Stocks for The Short Run?

In his latest column for The New York Times, Mark Hulbert highlights an interesting new study that examines the concept of long-term risk in the stock market. The study, performed by University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor Lubos Pastor and Wharton School Professor Robert F. Stambaugh, questions whether the concept of mean reversion really indicates that stocks are less risky over the long run, a theory that has been espoused by many investors… Read More

Study: Index Funds Top Mutual & Hedge Funds

Index funds may sound boring, but in his latest New York Times column, Mark Hulbert offers some data that indicates index funds may, in the end, actually yield higher net returns than mutual funds and even hedge funds. Hulbert details a study performed by Mark Kritzman, president and CEO of Windham Capital Management and a professor at M.I.T. In the study (presented in the Feb. 1 issue of Economics & Portfolio Strategy), Kritzman developed an… Read More

Hulbert: Signs of Investors Moving Back Toward Risk

In his latest column for MarketWatch, Mark Hulbert notes that a “dramatic reversal” is taking place in the bond market — and says it’s a reversal that could signal good things for the economy and the stock market. The yield spread between 10-year U.S. Treasuries and 10-year triple-A-rated municipal bonds has fallen significantly in the past month, Hulbert says. A month ago, those Treasuries were yielding 2.3% versus 3.53% for the munis. Given that interest… Read More

Hulbert: Graham’s Approach Endures

In his latest MarketWatch column, Mark Hulbert wonders whether the recent market plunge has shown that “maybe Ben Graham isn’t old-fashioned after all”. Over the past couple decades, Hulbert says, the strict, conservative approach used by Graham — who is known as both the “Father of Value Investing” and the mentor of Warren Buffett — had fallen out of favor on Wall Street. But as the current downturn has dragged on, Graham’s approach seems quite… Read More