Pimco Says U.S. Recession Possible in Next Three to Five Years

In a report outlining its market outlook, Pimco said it sees the potential for a recession hitting over the next three to five years. This according to a recent article in Financial Advisor. Forecasting a chance of “less market-friendly central banks,” the asset manager advised clients to reduce the riskiness of their corporate debt holdings and limit exposure to the euro region’s peripheral countries,” the article reports, adding that three Pimco executives say a U.S. recession… Read More

Economists Predict the Next Recession Hits in 2020

The majority of economic forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal think the current expansion will likely end in 2020, “only after setting a record for longevity.” The survey, conducted early in May, involved 60 business, financial and academic economists. The article reports that 62% or participants said the primary cause of the next downturn would be “an overheating economy leading to Fed tightening.” At least 5% of participants, the article reports, cited “a financial… Read More

Summers Says Next Recession Could Be Longer Than Last One

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers believes that the next U.S. recession could “drag on longer than the last one that stretched 18 months.” This according to a recent article in Bloomberg.   Even if the Fed were to tighten the reins considerably, he argues, it would take time before rates would get high enough to allow for a 500 basis point reduction typical for a recession.  The article quotes Summers: “That suggests that in the… Read More

New Study Links Pregnancy Rates to Recession

A new report published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reports that “a falling conception rate in the U.S. has consistently preceded the economic downturns of the last three decades,” according to a recent CNBC article. The NBER used high-frequency data from birth certificates to examine fertility trends across the 109 million births in the U.S. between 1989 and 2016, “tracking their changes in relation to business cycles,” the article reports. The study… Read More

Glassman: Worrying About the Next Recession Won’t Help

The tenacity of the current bull market begs the obvious question as to when it will end and, as we approach the election, uncertainly is heightened by recent lackluster GDP reports. In a recent issue of Kiplinger, James Glassman points out that although Americans consider the economy the nation’s “most important problem by far” (according to a Gallup poll), “you may be surprised to learn that the U.S. is currently in the midst of its… Read More