Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments and Forbes columnist, says “it’s better to be a little early than a little late getting back into stocks.” Fisher explains that the stock market is a discounting mechanism, representing “a guess about where the economy (and corporate profits) will be 6 to 24 months in the future.”
Fisher warns not to expect an economic recovery before mid- to late-’09, but he says that does not mean that stocks won’t recover. He writes, “Stock market bottoms happen, and then stocks jolt upwards, while the economy keeps getting worse–sometimes by a lot and for a long time. Take the bear market preceding the roaring 1920s. Global stocks bottomed in June 1921, but global economies didn’t hit bottom for fully two more years. Or the 1973–74 monster bear, when stocks bottomed in October 1974 but the U.S. economy kept sliding through March 1975.”
Fisher goes on to say “that it’s better to be a little early than a little late in getting back into stocks. The upward move at the beginning of a bull market is almost always huge compared with the vacillations late in the bear market. If you try to pick a bottom, you will miss a good part of the action.”
He outlines five investment ideas, including Paccar (PCAR), Corning (GLW), Air Products & Chemicals (APD), Wipro (WIT) and Research In Motion (RIMM).