Economic Cycle Research Institute Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, whose group has an impressive track record of forecasting economic trends, says global industrial growth is headed for a slowdown. But he doesn’t think another recession is coming.

“There’s a downturn in global industrial growth in clear sight,” Achuthan says, according to Investor’s Business Daily. “Commodity price inflation is rolling over. This is a classic sequence, and people need to start thinking about the scenario where global industrial growth once again starts to throttle back.”

ECRI’s long leading indicator of global industrial growth peaked last August, IBD reports, and in March it fell near its lowest level in three decades. But, IBD says, Achuthan sees no sign of a renewed recession.

Achuthan also said China has gotten ahead of itself in terms of tightening interest rates. “China is stepping on the brakes, but a slowdown is baked in the cake,” he said. “The risk is they go too far in fighting inflation.”