Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which has an exceptional track record of economic forecasting, says the economy is slowing in a cyclical fashion — not just because of short-term, anomalous issues like the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Achuthan tells Bloomberg that he sees growth slowing in the second half of the year, and perhaps into next year. And with forward-looking indicators not showing signs of improvement, he says it’s a big risk to take tackle issues of rising U.S. debt right now, even though it poses a longer-term problem. He adds that he sees a “double-dip scare” coming this summer, though he doesn’t know whether the scare will actually be accompanied by a new recession.

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