“If we get a good second half of the year earnings-wise, then I think the market could be up 10 to 15 percent” predicts well-known Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel…
Tag: forecasting
Tetlock On What Makes A Good Forecaster
How often are supposedly “expert” forecasters’ predictions right? A lot less often than you might think, according to researcher Philip Tetlock. But in a recent interview on Barry Ritholtz’s Masters…
How Current and Future Expectations Influence Stock Prices
Company performance and stock price performance, or outcomes, don’t always go hand and hand. In a very good article, Morgan Housel, economics and finance columnist for The Motley Fool, points out…
Forecasts are more like “Aftercasts”
New research illustrates how strongly the recent past influences investor expectations, as Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig notes. Research by Professors William Goetzman, Robert Shiller, and Dasol Kim concluded,…
4 Ways On How to Improve Forecasting Skills, a Credit Suisse Report by Mauboussin
In the aggregate, forecasters may be “roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimp,” but some forecasters are particularly and consistently far better than average. Credit Suisse reports that the book Superforecasting: The Art and…
Lessons from 2014's Forecasting Failure
What lessons can investors take from 2014? Don’t listen to short-term economic and stock market forecasts, says The wall street journal’s Jason Zweig. (more…)