Shiller Says Bull Could Run for a While

When asked for his outlook on the market in a recent CNBC interview, Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller says investors should keep some stocks in their portfolio because the market “could go up 50 percent from here.” The economist, who helped develop the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) market valuation measure, says that although the current CAPE (29) is above the 17-year historical average, he isn’t calling for a market decline. That said, he notes that diversification… Read More

The “Raging Bull” Could Be Running Out of Steam

The mood surrounding today’s stock market seems to be rife with contradiction, according to an article in yesterday’s Fortune. “At today’s elevated prices,” it argues, “the market math contradicts Wall Street’s sunny outlook.” The article cites a recent interview with Goldman Sachs’ chief global equities strategist Peter Oppenheim that supports the thesis. While Oppenheim argued that the Trump effect has “overpriced the ability of the administration to push through some of the things the market… Read More

The Stubborn Bull Market Continues to Advance

While waiting for the other shoe to drop has become a favorite pastime for many in the investment community, the current bull market appears to be pretty sturdy. Precisely why, according to The Wall Street Journal’s Steven Russolillo, “more milestones could be in the offing.” Data from the Investment Company Institute shows that, post-Brexit, investors yanked nearly $8 billion from U.S. equity funds (the fourth biggest weekly withdrawal of the year). So far this year… Read More

Investors Not Buying this Bull Market

Even though the S&P continues to hover over a new record high, investors don’t seem to be buying it–metaphorically or literally. This according to journalist James Mackintosh of the Wall Street Journal. Instead, funds are flowing into safer investments. Not so much in the direction of bonds, which are showing paltry returns (the 10-year Treasury bond has hit new lows) or in sexy stocks, but rather in “bond-like” equities. The two sectors with the most… Read More

Will This Rally Be Different?

As the stock market shows signs of a rally much like that of 2015, should we be optimistic that it will reach new highs or prepare ourselves for another disappointment? In a recent article in Barron’s, James Paulsen of Wells Capital (a unit of Wells Fargo & Co.) thinks it could be different this time, and here’s why: This rally is seeing a much broader participation than that of 2015, when it was led by… Read More

The Uniqueness of the Current Bull Market According to S&P’s Stovall

Sam Stovall, Managing Director of US Equity Strategy for S&P Global Market Intelligence, writes that “this is one of the few times in which history might not even be a good guide . . . due to the limited number of times bull markets have made it this far.” He notes that “assuming this 12th bull market since WWII is still alive, it has lasted 84 months, vs. the average age of 56 months” and… Read More

Sonders: Market Most Likely in Post-Echo Bull Phase

Liz Ann Sonders, chief strategist for Charles Schwab, outlines the four phases of the stock market over a full market cycle. Since 1960, the market can be seen following the four distinct periods: recession bear, post-recession bull, echo bear and post-echo bull. Recession Bear: these are the big bear markets, usually lasting a few years and averaging declines of 30%. The 2007-2009 bear market, as Sonders points out, fell by 54% so that was a… Read More

Charles Schwab CIO Liz Ann Sonders Sees the Market Within a Bull Pattern

Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab offered a cautiously bullish analysis of the market at the recent Inside ETFs conference. She cited Sir John Templeton’s statement that “bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” She sees the current market in the “mature” phase of the bull cycle. “I don’t want to dismiss any of the concerns out there about the global economy, but if you look… Read More

5 Signs of a Surviving Bull Market, Says Schwab’s Sonders

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist with Schwab, believes the bull market will continue. She points to: The lack of new net inflows into equity mutual funds (unprecedented in a bull market like the current one); The S&P has crossed its 50-day moving average more than 50 times so far this year (much higher than earlier in the bull market); Stock buybacks may be supporting rises in stock prices; The Fed is signaling a slow… Read More

Birinyi: Bull Market to Continue Onward & Upward

“My six-month forecast is [that stocks will go] higher,” says Laszlo Birinyi, founder and president of Birinyi Associates, Inc. He has been a persistent bull in recent years, and has repeatedly been proven right.  In December 2008, he said the stock market had reached its low. In September 2011, he said the Greek debt crisis would not drag U.S. companies lower, after which the market quickly bottomed and began a climb resulting in a 14% gain… Read More