Hulbert Says War Doesn’t Scare the Stock Market

While the stock market doesn’t like war, the uncertainty that precedes a foreign military operation is typically resolved soon after any U.S.-led hostilities begin, and the market responds very positively. This according to Mark Hulbert in a recent Barron’s article. Hulbert cites the countries “saber-rattling directed at North Korea and Syria” as recent examples corresponding to a dip in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Validea note: this as of April 20th—the index has since picked… Read More

Hulbert: Don’t Believe These Old Market Adages

When investors follow popular stock market beliefs and seasonal patterns, the only people who make money are the brokers earnings trading fees from the subsequent buying and selling, writes Mark Hulbert in last week’s USA TODAY. Hulbert, founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest, shared his insights on the following three widely-assumed “strikes” against the market: “Sell in May and go away:” The notion that investors should go to cash on May 1st and not return… Read More

Hulbert on the Likelihood of a Market Bubble

A new study conducted by Harvard University professors reveals that a share price run-up is not necessarily a precursor to a market bubble, writes Mark Hulbert in a recent Barron’s article. The study also suggests, says Hulbert, that the “mere existence of a major decline doesn’t automatically mean that the previous run-up was a bubble.” [The study defines a bubble as a price increase of at least 100% over a two-year period followed within the… Read More

Hulbert Calls Large Cap Strength a “Bullish Omen”

Mark Hulbert argues against the conventional wisdom that small-cap outperformance relative to large-caps indicates a positive trend (the idea being that large caps will “have to perform particularly well just to catch up”). This according to his recent MarketWatch article. After evaluating 20 years of relative performance data for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 (small-cap index), Hulbert concludes that outperformance by the S&P 500 is a “bullish omen,” and that, “none of… Read More

Hulbert Challenges Harvard’s Lesson on Investing

After a disappointing year in which its endowment fund actually lost money, Harvard University fired half of its investment staff, writes Mark Hulbert in last week’s MarketWatch. However, he argues, “it’s not that past performance doesn’t count; what’s irrelevant is performance over the recent past. Calendar-year performance, for example, tells you next to nothing about whether your manager is a good bet for future returns. The long-term performance of Harvard’s endowment fund is strong, says… Read More

Hulbert: Don’t Chase the Winners

 At a time when investors are inundated with the “best of” performance rankings for 2016, a recent MarketWatch article by Mark Hulbert advises against chasing the winners. The best thing to do, he writes, is “sit on your hands.” Hulbert suggests that investors “consider those that were in the top quartile for performance three years ago. Believe it or not, many of them were in the bottom quartile for performance over the last 12 months.”… Read More

Hulbert: A Balanced Portfolio is the Better Choice

An all-equity portfolio “barely produces better returns than a mix of stocks and bonds,” writes Mark Hulbert in last week’s MarketWatch. This isn’t a prophecy of an imminent bear market, he says, but rather is based on years of data spanning the last 90 years (provided by Ibbotson–a division of Morningstar). The data shows that, since 1926, a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio would have produced an 8.6% return, only 1.4 percentage points lower than the 10%… Read More

October Low Could Signal Rally

Over the last 120 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained an average of 6.8% from its lowest October close through December 31st, writes Mark Hulbert in last week’s MarketWatch. Given recent dips, we could see a “significant rally through the end of the year,” according to Hulbert. He contrasted post-low monthly gains going back to 1896 and found that those following October lows are the largest. This pattern, Hulbert writes, has led many… Read More

How to Win in the Market: Look Up

It may sound like a mother’s mantra to her tech-obsessed teenager, but turning off your computer and putting away your smartphone might be the ticket to triumph in the market. This according to Mark Hulbert, founder of The Hulbert Financial Digest, in a recent MarketWatch column. Hulbert cites study results published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research that found performance by those traders who pay the closest attention to the stock market’s… Read More

Market Timing Indicator Kicks off Rare Buy Signal

Most would agree that valuations in the current mature bull market make buying equities a bit less alluring than they were, say, when the U.S. was emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis. However, according to a MarketWatch article by Mark Hulbert, an indicator referred to as the Coppock Guide is suggesting that the potential still exists for “significant returns.” Edwin Coppock was a technical analyst who proposed his market-timing model in an article for Barron’s in… Read More